摘要
随着大量移动设备的出现,准确和高效的轨迹预测有助于提高面向位置的应用和服务的质量和水平.针对现有方法对轨迹不确定性缺乏有效建模的问题,提出了基于非参数密度估计的不确定轨迹终点预测方法.在轨迹建模及模型训练阶段,利用非参数估计对起点与终点相同的轨迹构建基于密度分布的不确定轨迹模型;在轨迹预测阶段,将待预测轨迹视为轨迹数据流,并通过KS (Kolmogorov-Smirnov)检验方法与具有相同起点的不确定轨迹模型进行匹配,其中匹配程度最高的不确定轨迹即为预测轨迹.通过真实轨迹数据集上的实验表明,与现有各类主要轨迹预测方法相比,本方法在不同条件下的预测效率与准确性都有较明显优势.
With the popularization of a large number of mobile devices, the accurate and efficient trajectory prediction could help to improve the service quality of location-oriented applications. To solve the problem of less effectiveness existing in modeling for uncertain trajectories, we propose a method for predicting the destination of uncertain trajectories using the non-parametric density estimation method. In the modeling stage, the uncertain trajectory model between the same origin and destination is constructed with the method of non-parametric estimation to represent the density distribution feature. In the trajectory prediction stage, the trajectory to be predicted is regarded as a data stream. And it is matched with the uncertain trajectory having the same origin through the KS(Kolmogorov-Smirnov) hypothesis testing. Then the optimal matching uncertain trajectory is the prediction result and its destination is the predictive destination. The Experiments on real trajectory datasets indicate that the proposed method has obvious advantages in prediction efficiency and accuracy under different conditions, as compared to the existing trajectory prediction methods.
作者
程媛
迟荣华
黄少滨
吕天阳
CHENG Yuan;CHI Rong-Hua;HUANG Shao-Bin;LV Tian-Yang(College of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080;Postdoctoral Research Station, College of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080;College of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001;National Audit Simulation Laboratory of IT Center, National Audit Office, Beijing 100071)
出处
《自动化学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期787-798,共12页
Acta Automatica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(91546110)
黑龙江省自然科学基金(F2017015)
黑龙江省普通高等学校青年创新人才培养计划(UNPYSCT-2017079)资助~~
关键词
轨迹预测
不确定性
非参数密度估计
KS检验
Trajectory prediction
uncertainty
non-parametric density estimation
KS hypothesis testing