基于CA-Markov的郧西县城关镇土地利用变化图谱的模拟及预测

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change Map of Chengguan Town in Yunxi County Based on CA-Markov Model

为深入研究郧西县城关镇土地利用图谱的变化规律及驱动机制,以郧西县城关镇2009、2013和2017年的土地利用现状数据作为数据源,基于CA-Markov模型对郧西县城关镇三年内土地利用图谱演变进行了模拟及预测;并利用多时相遥感(Temporal remote sensing)分类图像检验了CA-Markov的模拟精度,经检验,其Kappa系数达到93%,表明预测和现实一致性较高,可以用该模型来模拟预测2020年郧西县城关镇土地利用分类情况。研究结果表明:运用CA-Markov模拟土地利用演变规律是可行的;在2009～2017年间,郧西县城关镇土地利用变化图谱面积由大到小排序为稳定型、后期型、前期型、反复型、持续型;预测到2020年时,城关镇耕地、林地及草地持续减少,水域、减少用地持续增加,模拟结果表明城关镇在未来几年内土地变化情况仍很复杂,其中建设用地增加较多,耕地持续减少,相关部门应该制定相关的政策去限制城市的无序扩张,保证耕地不减少,这对城关镇的生态恢复有着重要促进作用。

In order to study in depth, the changing patterns and driving mechanism of land use maps in Chengguan Town of Yunxi County,this study used the data of land use status of Chengguan Town in Yunxi County in 2009, 2013 and 2017 as the data source.Based on CA-Markov model,the simulation and predictionof land use pattern evolution in Chengguan Town of Xi County was carried out in three years.The simulation accuracy of CA-Markov was tested by temporal remote sensing classification image.Its Kappa coefficient reaches 93%, indicating that the prediction and reality are in good agreement. This model can be used to simulate and predict land use classification in Chengguan Town, Yunxi County in 2020.The results show that::1.Using CA-Markov to simulate land use evolution is feasible;2.From 2009 to 2017, the land use change pattern of Chengguan Town in Yunxi County was ranked as stable change, late change, early change, repeated change and continuous change;3.It is predicted that by 2020, the arable land, woodland, and grassland in Chengguan Town will continue to decrease, and the water area and land use will continue to increase. The forecast result indicates that the land use change in Chengguan Town is very active and the ecological environment is under pressure to recover and rebuild.Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen the protection of cultivated land, forest land and grassland in the region, control and prevent blindly reclamation of cultivated land, and promote the protection and improvement of the ecological environment.