基于产量灾损的冬小麦干热风综合风险区划

Comprehensive risk zoning of dry-hot wind onwinter wheat based on yield loss

利用河南省118个县气象站逐日气象资料、作物耕地面积和灌溉面积等资料,30个农业气象观测站产量、产量结构及作物发育期资料,通过分解气象产量和假设千粒重期望值的方法,提取出了灌浆期气象产量,考虑减产风险概率、千粒重变异系数等指标,构建了干热风产量灾损风险指数。将产量灾损风险与灾害气候风险区划结果相结合,制定了干热风灾害综合风险区划。结果表明:提取的灌浆期气象产量呈正态分布,各代表站干热风发生年份的平均减产率为7.4%;干热风产量灾损的低风险区占全区域的43.3%,中度风险区占36.7%,高风险区占20%。襄城、方城、西平和驻马店等地干热风灾害综合风险指数均在0.5以上,是产量灾损高风险与气候高风险的重叠区,低风险区位于伊川、南阳、郑州、太康和淮河以南大部。

Studying the risk of damage caused by agrometeorology disaster has important significance for scientifically defending the disasters.The information including daily meteorology data,area information such as crop planting and irrigation,et al,for 118 counties,as well as yield,yield structure,and crop developmental phases at 30 agrometeorological observation stations were used.By resolving the meteorological yield and assuming an expected value for 1000-kernel weight,the meteorological yield of grain filling stage was separated,and then,indexes as risk index of yield reduction,variable coefficient of 1000-kernel weight,et al,were considered,the index of yield loss risk of dry-hot wind was established.The outcome of yield loss risk and climatic risk of dry-hot wind were integrated to zone the comprehensive hazard risk.The results showed that:the extracted meteorological yield of grain filling stage showed normal distribution,the average loss rate for the years of the hazard was 7.4% at the representative stations.The low risk area of yield loss including 43.3% of the whole stations,36.7% and 20% for middle and high risk areas,respectively.The high value of comprehensive risk index,which was more than 0.5,distributed at Xiangcheng,Fangcheng,Xiping and Zhumadian,et al,where the high value of yield loss risk and climatic risk overlapped.The low risk region was located at Yichuang,Nangyang,Zhengzhou,Taikang and most of south of Huai-River in the Province.