TISA谈判经济效应分析——基于GTAP模型的模拟

The Economic Effects of TISA Negotiations

美国和澳大利亚倡导高标准的服务贸易谈判——TISA(Trade in Service Agreement,服务贸易协定)谈判,其成员服务贸易进出口额的70%以上被认为是服务贸易自由化中最热门、最有发展前景的谈判。使用全球贸易分析模型—GTAP模型,对TISA谈判可能达成的不同成果及中国的不同参与路径进行模拟,从宏观经济、服务业和服务贸易三个角度定量测度主要经济体和中国的潜在影响。模拟结果显示:TISA谈判成员进行服务贸易壁垒削减会产生比较明显的贸易创造效应。在TISA谈判成员达成较低水平服务贸易壁垒减让的情况下,中国的主要经济指标均会提升;若TISA谈判成员达成较高水平服务贸易壁垒减让时,中国会遭受较大损失。中国除建筑服务业外,其他种类服务业的产出均会产生增长;中国所有种类的服务贸易出口均会出现增长,增长幅度居前的种类有通信服务、保险服务、建筑服务和贸易服务。

Initiated by the United States and EU,TISA(Trade in Services Agreement)negotiations is the most promising opportunity to further liberalize trade in services.The global trade analysis model GTAP model was used to simulate the different outcomes that may be achieved in the TISA negotiations and the different participation paths of China,and to quantitatively measure the potential impact of major economies and China from three angles,which are the perspectives of macro-economy,service industry and service trade.The simulation results show that the reduction of service trade barriers by TISA negotiators will have a relatively obvious trade creation effect.In the case of TISA negotiating members reaching a lower level of trade barriers,China's major economic indicators will increase;if TISA negotiators reach a higher level of trade barriers,China will suffer greater losses.In addition to the construction services industry,the output of other types of service industries will increase.All types of service trade exports in China will increase.The top growth categories include communication service,insurance service,construction service and trade service.