考虑不规则风速概率分布特性的配电系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Considering the Probability Distribution Characteristics of Irregular Wind Speed

威布尔分布模型无法准确描述不规则风速概率分布特性,将其应用于含风电的配电网可靠性评估会造成评估结果偏差较大。为了提高评估结果的准确性,本文首次将改进混合半云模型应用于考虑不规则风速概率分布特性的配电系统可靠性评估中。采用美国Monteview地区时间间隔5 min的风速数据建立不同的风速概率分布模型,并应用于求解不同风速扰动情况下配电系统可靠性指标。算例结果表明:改进混合半云模型鲁棒性更好,更适用于含风电接入的配电系统可靠性评估。

Weibull distribution model cannot accurately describe the probability distribution characteristics of irregular wind speed,which will result in the large deviation of the evaluation result if the model is applied in the reliability evaluation of distribution network with wind power.In order to improve the accuracy of the evaluation result,the improved mixed half-cloud model is applied in the reliability evaluation of distribution network considering the probability distribution of irregular wind speed in this paper.The probability distribution models of different wind speeds are established based on the 5-minute interval wind speed data in Monteview,USA and are used to solve the reliability index of distribution system under different wind speed disturbances.The results of the example show that the improved mixed half-cloud model has better robustness and is more suitable for the reliability evaluation of distribution network with wind power.