概率的解释谱系及其实践应用——以“机会游戏”为例

Interpretative Pedigree of Probability and Its Practical Application: Taking “Chance Game” as an Example

概率论起源于16世纪,发展到今天,已经是一门成熟的学科了。然而,学者们对于概率的理解呈现出多元论的观点:古典概率论者假定随机事件是有限互斥的,并且每个基本事件发生的可能性相等;逻辑主义者在无差别原则的基础之上,认为所有理智正常的成年人都会基于相同的证据对某一假说怀有相同的置信度;主观主义者采用打赌来测量人们对假说的合理置信度;频率论者认为概率是无穷序列中某事件或某属性出现的相对频率的极限;倾向主义者认为概率是一种物理倾向。这五种理解各有所长,古典概率适用于机会游戏;逻辑主义和主观主义属于概率的认识论解释,主要应用于社会科学;而频率论者的解释和倾向主义的解释属于概率的客观解释,适用于自然科学。澄清概率的多种解释,梳理从主观到客观的解释谱系,有利于我们全面认识“概率”。在实际生活中,我们通常基于概率与精确统计来对随机现象进行科学分析,在科学分析过程中,概率均等原理、偏态原理和惯性原理有利于我们对随机现象进行更为实际地把握。

The 16th century saw the birth of the probability theory,which has developed into today’s mature discipline.However,it is shown that the understanding of probability among scholars presents a pluralistic view.Classical probability theorists assume that random events are finitely mutually exclusive,and that each basic event is equally likely to occur.On the basis of the principle of non-discrimination,logicists believe that all rationally normal adults will have the same degree of confidence in a hypothesis according to the same evidence.Subjectivists use bets to measure people’s reasonable confidence in hypotheses.Frequency theorists believe that probability is the limit of the relative frequency of an event or attribute in an infinite sequence.Tendency proponents think that probability is a physical tendency.Each theory mentioned above has its own advantages.Classical probability applies to chance games.Logicism and subjectivism belong to the epistemological interpretation of probability,mainly applied to social science;while the interpretation of frequency theorists and the interpretation of proponents belong to the objective interpretation of probability,suitable for the natural science.Clarifying multiple interpretations of probability and combing the subjective to objective interpretation of the lineage are conducive to our comprehensive understanding of“probability.”In real life,we usually conduct a scientific analysis of random phenomena based on probability and accurate statistics.In the process of the analysis,the principle of probability equalization,the principle of skewness and the principle of inertia are beneficial for us to grasp the random phenomenon more realistically.