关于“全面二孩”政策实施效果的研究——基于指数平滑法和“投射——实施后”对比分析法

Research on the implementation effect after the implementation of “Universal Two-Child” policy——Based on exponential smoothing method and projection comparative analysis method

[目的]系统分析并评价"全面二孩"政策实施的效果,为调整和完善生育政策、提升生育水平以及促进人口合理化均衡发展提供参考。[方法]运用文献分析法确定评价效果的相关指标,利用指数平滑法根据2005-2015年相关人口指标预测2016-2017年的数值,通过"投射——实施后"对比分析法将预测值与2016-2017年的实际值进行比较,在此基础上分析"全面二孩"政策实施后的人口效果。[结果]实施"全面二孩政策"后,2016年总体远超出预期,人口总量大幅增加(差异度为18. 10%),全年出生人口和人口自然增长率也明显上升(差异度为4. 60%和14. 90%)。2017年则与预期相差不大,总人口增量略有减少(差异度-0. 06%),全年出生人口和人口自然增长率略有增长(差异度为0. 04%和0. 05%)。[结论]"全面二孩"政策实施后的人口效果已经有所显现,但未能达到预期目标。要想进一步巩固和强化二孩政策的实施效果,还需要制定相应的配套政策,并加强对新政策的宣传力度,同时继续宣传性别平等观,培养鼓励再生育的文化氛围。

Objective To analyze and evaluate the implementation effect of “Universal Two-Child” policy so as to provide references for adjusting and improving fertility policy,raising fertility level and promoting rational and balanced development of the population. Methods Literature analysis method was used to determine relevant indicators of evaluation effect.Exponential smoothing method was used to predict the value from 2016 to 2017 according to relevant population indicator from 2005 to 2015.Compared predicted value and actual value data from 2016 to 2017 through “projection ---- implemented” comparative analysis.Based on that,it analyzed population effect after the implementation of “Universal Two-Child” policy. Results After the implementation of “universal two-child” policy,the overall situation in 2016 was much higher than expected.Population gross grew greatly(diversity factor was 18.10%).Annual birth population and natural population growth rate also increased significantly(diversity factor was 4.60% and 14.90%).In 2017,there was little difference from the expectation.Total population increment was slightly reduced(diversity factor was -0.06% difference).Annual birth population and natural population growth rate increased slightly(diversity factor was 0.04% and 0.05%). Conclusions The population effect after the implementation of “universal two-child” policy has been appeared,but fails to achieve expected goals.In order to further consolidate and strengthen the implementation effect of two-child policy,it is necessary to formulate corresponding supporting policies,strengthen the publicity of new policies,continue to publicize the concept of gender equality,and cultivate cultural atmosphere that encourage reproduction.