收入不确定与生育意愿——基于阶层流动的调节效应

Income Uncertainty and Fertility Willingness——Based on the Moderating Effect of Social Mobility

本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,采用Logit回归模型检验了收入不确定、阶层流动与生育意愿的关系。结果显示:收入不确定显著抑制了二孩生育意愿;与高收入阶层相比,低收入家庭脆弱性更大,收入不确定显著抑制其生育意愿;暂时性收入波动对男性二孩生育意愿的抑制作用更明显,但并未降低女性二孩生育意愿;失业率显著降低了女性二孩生育意愿,却并未降低男性二孩生育意愿;社会阶层流动增加了二孩生育意愿,并显著降低了收入不确定对二孩生育的不利影响。

Based on the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)data,this paper uses Logit regression to examine the relationship between income uncertainty,social mobility and fertility willingness.The results show that income uncertainty significantly inhibits the fertility willingness of two children;compared with the high-income class,low-income families are more vulnerable,and income uncertainty significantly inhibits their fertility willingness;temporary income fluctuations inhibit male fertility willingness more obviously,but it does not significantly reduce that of women;unemployment rate significantly reduces the willingness of women to have two children,but it does not reduce that of men;social mobility increases fertility willingness,and significantly decreases the negative effect of income uncertainty on fertility.