"西部区域能源、经济、环境与公共健康的耦合研究与预测

Coupling Research and Prediction on Energy, Economy,Environment and Public Health in the Western Region

为了探究西部区域能源、经济、环境与公共健康的耦合状况,本文通过系统耦合机制与灰色预测方法,基于西部11个省市2008-2018年的数据,对能源、经济、生态与公共健康演变进行深入分析,结果显示在2008—2018年间,西部地区能源消费、经济增长、生态环境变化与公共健康演变的耦合度呈"W"型趋势变化,整体耦合度较高,波动区间较小。之后,根据2008—2018年西部11个省市四元系统协调度的级比序列检验结果,对2019-2023未来5年四元系统的耦合协调度进行灰色预测,结果显示未来5年西部区域四元系统协调度整体向好发展,大部分能达到基本协调水平,少部分能达到比较协调水平,个别协调耦合能力还较差。为发展绿色经济、提高生态环境质量,建议发挥市场机制作用,完善环境经济政策;改善能源消费结构,积极推动绿色能源;改善公共卫生状况,提高整体医疗水平。

In order to explore the coupling of energy, economy, environment and public health in the western region, the paper uses the system coupling mechanism and the grey prediction method based on data from 2008 to 2018 in 11 western provinces to analyze deeply the evolution of energy, economy, ecology and public health. From 2008 to 2018, the coupling degree of energy consumption,economic growth,ecological environment, and public health evolution in the western region showed a "W" trend. The overall coupling degree was high and the fluctuation is small. According to the test results on the order ratio sequence of quaternary system coordination degree from 2008 to 2018, the paper makes grey prediction on the quaternary system coupling in the forthcoming five years from 2019 to 2023. The results shows that most provinces and cities can reach the basic coordination stage in the five-year forecast. A few provinces and cities can even reach the comparative coordination stage, and individual cases are of poor coupling ability. Developing green economy and improving ecological environment should depend on giving full play to the market mechanism, promoting energy consumption structrue, pushing green energy, lifting public health status and perfecting the overall level of medical care.