城乡居民生活消费间接碳排放敏感度研究——以北京市为例

The Study on Sensitivity of Indirect Carbon Emission from Urban and Rural Household Consumption:A Case Study of Beijing City

本文结合投入-产出模型与Sherman-Morrison方程构建城乡居民间接碳排放敏感度模型,利用2012年北京市投入-产出表,核算出北京市城乡居民生活消费间接碳排放量,并在此基础上计算并分析城乡居民间接碳排放对42个行业生产技术变动的敏感度,明确对居民间接碳排放影响最大的关键行业及关键生产关系。结果表明:①北京市城镇居民生活消费间接碳排放总量远高于乡村居民,而且在大多数行业中城镇居民间接碳排放都大于乡村居民,居民间接碳排放量的城乡差异体现出城乡居民在生活消费需求方面的差异。从行业角度看,食品和烟草业在城镇和乡村都是导致居民消费间接碳排放量最高的行业;②电力、热力的生产和供应业、食品和烟草业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业的生产技术变化对北京市城乡居民间接碳排放的影响最大,多数行业的生产技术变化对城、乡居民间接碳排放的影响程度都存在差异;③在制定碳减排政策时应该大力鼓励对居民消费间接碳排放影响显著的关键行业的技术升级,推动关键行业的技术提升可以起到事半功倍的碳减排效果。

Based on the input-output model and Sherman-Morrison equation, the sensitivity model of urban and rural residents’ indirect carbon emission was set up. With the input-output tables of Beijing in 2012, indirect carbon emissions from urban and rural resident household consumption in Beijing were calculated. Furthermore, on the basis of the calculation, the sensitive analysis of the urban and rural residents’ indirect carbon emission on the technology changes of 42 sectors was made, from which the key sectors and key production relations with the maximum influence on residents’ indirect carbon were identified. The results showed:①The indirect carbonemission of urban household consumption is much higher than that of rural household consumption in Beijing and the former in most industries is greater than the latter. From the perspective of sector, food and tobacco industry is the largest emission sector in the indirect carbon emissions from both urban and rural household consumption. The differences between urban and rural residents’ indirect carbon emissions reflect the differences between urban and rural residents on the consumption demand.②The technological changes of electricity, heat production and supply industry, food and tobacco industry, transportation, storage and postal industry have the largest influences on indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural household consumption in Beijing. There are differences of influential extents of technology changes in most sectors on urban and rural household indirect carbon emissions.③When formulating carbon emission reduction policies, policy makers should strongly encourage the technology upgrading of key industries that have significant impact on the indirect carbon emissions of household consumption. Promoting the technology upgrading of key industries can achieve the carbon emission reduction effect with half the effort.