基于水资源配置平衡的云南省水系连通格局效果分析

Effect analysis of water system connectivity pattern in Yunnan Province based on water resources allocation balance

为分析云南省水系连通工程供水安全保障效果,结合水资源精细化管理需求,在传统水资源三次平衡方法基础上,提出"三层四级"水系连通供需平衡分析方法。分析结果表明:经济社会发展引起用水增长和水资源空间极不均衡,到2030年,水资源供需矛盾更加尖锐,仅使用域内节水挖潜措施,全省一次供需平衡缺水率40.3%,二次供需平衡缺水率20.4%,供水安全受到严重威胁。通过水系连通工程的合理布局和供水,各级连通工程建设供需平衡分析表明,四大级别连通工程建设可以使得缺水量减小到11.56亿m^3,缺水率减小到5.3%,连通工程对于云南省供水安全保障具有重要作用。

In order to analyze the effect of water supply security of Yunnan water system interconnection project,a method of "three layers and four levels" water system interconnection supply and demand balance analysis was proposed on the basis of traditional three times of water resources balance method combined with the demand of fine water resources management.The analysis results show that with the development of economy and society,the growth of water use and the spatial imbalance of water resources are caused.By 2030,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more acute.The water shortage rate after the first time supply and demand balance is 40.3% and that after the second time supply and demand balance is 20.4% only by using water saving measures in the region.Water supply security is seriously threatened.However,through the rational distribution and water supply of water system connection projects,the analysis of supply and demand balance of all levels of connection projects shows that the four levels of connection projects can reduce the water shortage to 1.156 billion m^3 and the water shortage rate to 5.3%.Connection projects play an important role in ensuring water supply safety in Yunnan Province.