沪渝两市房产税政策中长期实施效果评估

Evaluation of the Effect of Medium and Long-term Implementation of Real Estate Tax Policy in Shanghai and Chongqing

双重差分法是评估公共政策实施"净效果"的经典方法。利用双重差分法,把上海市、重庆市作为处理组,研究全国35个大中城市2006年至2016年的年度时空面板数据,探讨2011年上海市、重庆市实施房产税政策对其房价中长期的影响。结果表明,从中长期看,房产税的实施对住宅销售价格具有统计上的显著负面作用,但经济意义上表现不太明显。

The DID method is one of the typical methods to evaluate the “net effect” of public policy implementation. This paper uses the DID method to treat Shanghai and Chongqing as the treatment group,and conducts research on the annual space-time panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2016,explores the impact of real estate tax policies in Shanghai and Chongqing on the medium and long-term housing prices in 2011. The results show that in the medium and long term,the implementation of the real estate tax has a statistically significant negative effect on the residential sales price,but the economic performance is not obvious.