LNG深海输气管道可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of LNG submarine pipelines

为降低海水腐蚀因素间的复杂度,有效分析LNG深海输气管道的可靠性,构建了KPCA融合改进Wiener的预测模型。运用KPCA法实现数据降维,结合改进的Wiener及加速方程建立退化模型,并将KPCA筛选的主成分作为输入,利用MCMC法对模型参数仿真求解,进而分析管道可靠性。结果表明,LNG深海输气管道初期状态相对稳定,后由于海水腐蚀作用,可靠性下降。

In order to reduce the complexity of seawater corrosion factors, and analysis the reliability of deep-sea LNG gas pipelines effectively, a prediction model based on KPCA and improved Wiener is constructed. The KPCA method was used to achieve data dimensionality reduction, and the improved Wiener and acceleration equations were used to establish the degradation model. Taking the principal components screened by KPCA as input, MCMC is used to calculate the model parameters, and then the reliability of the pipelines is analyzed. The results show that the initial state of the deep sea LNG gas pipeline is relatively stable, but it is suddenly reduced due to the corrosion of seawater.