基于投影寻踪与复合系统模型的区域人口―经济―生态协调发展研究

Research on Coordinated Development of Regional Population, Economy and Ecology based on Projection Pursuit and Composite System Model

人口结构、社会经济与生态环境三者复合协调问题是人类社会发展特别是经济持续高速发展的核心问题。以系统协同论及离差原理为基础,运用灰色关联分析模型、投影寻踪模型和协调度模型等方法,构建人口-经济-生态三要素的复合系统,且计算出广东省2006年-2015年的人口-经济-生态的综合发展水平及其协调程度。研究发现,人口结构、经济效益与生态环境发展水平总体呈稳定上升趋势,接近于重合;复合系统协调度出现波浪式上升趋势,其中受人口与生态系统影响较大。

The composite coordination, population structure, social economy and ecological environment, is the main problem of the development of human society in the core issue of rapid economic development. The paper taking system coordination theory and deviation principle and using the grey relation analysis model, projection pursuit model and coordination degree model, constructs a complex system of the population, economy and ecology, and calculates the population economic ecological comprehensive development level and coordination degree of Guangdong province from 2006 to 2015. The study found that the overall development level of population structure, economic benefit and ecological environment increased steadily;the coordination degree of complex system showed the increasing trend, which influenced by the population and ecological system.