2018年国内外棉花市场形势分析及2019年展望

Cotton Markets at Home and Abroad in 2018and Their Prospects for 2019

2018年,棉花供给较为充足,国内棉花面积、产量"双增长",棉花质量较好,储备棉抛储规模较大,棉花进口较上年增加;棉花需求波动下降;国内外棉花价格波动较大,内外棉价差缩小。展望2019年,棉花消费趋弱可能性较大,棉花供给充裕,棉花价格弱势震荡可能性较大。最后,针对内地棉区植棉意向可能继续下滑、棉花消费萎缩棉花价格下滑使得后期市场风险加大、机采棉质量急需提高等方面问题提出了发展建议。

In 2018, the supply of cotton was relatively sufficient, the area and output of cotton in China had both growth, the cotton quality was better, the reserve cotton dumped and stored on a larger scale, and the import of cotton increased compared with the previous year;cotton demand decreased with the fluctuation;the fluctuation of cotton prices at home and abroad was relatively large, and the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton was narrowed. Looking forward to 2019, cotton consumption is more likely to weaken, cotton supply will be abundant, and cotton prices will be more vulnerable to shocks. At last, some suggestions were put forward in view of the possible decline of cotton planting intention in the inland cotton areas, increasing of later market risk because of cotton price declining with the shrinkage of cotton consumption, and the urgent need to improve the quality of mechanically harvested cotton.