2018年中国奶业发展与2019年展望

Development of China's Dairy Industry in 2018 and Its Prospect for 2019

2018年全球贸易格局发生很大变化,贸易的不确定性增强,全球经济增长的预期下降。在此背景下,农产品产出仍然维持在较高水平,牛奶产出也保持较快增长。2018年中国经济继续保持中高速增长,尽管奶业产出维持稳定,但是产出效率却不断提高,乳品价格相对稳定。由于国内供需缺口仍然存在,乳品进口进一步增长。展望2019年,全球农产品与牛奶产出仍会保持较高水平,国内乳品价格整体仍将保持平稳,奶牛养殖将进一步资本化与规模化。

The global trade pattern has changed greatly in 2018, the uncertainty of trade has increased, and the expectation of global economic growth has declined. In this context, agricultural output is still maintained at a high level, and milk production has also maintained rapid growth. In 2018, China’s economy continued to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth. Although the milk output remained stable, the output efficiency continued to increase and the price of dairy products was relatively stable. As domestic supply and demand gaps still exist, dairy imports have further increased. Looking forward to 2019, global agricultural products and milk output will remain at a high level, domestic dairy prices will remain stable overall, and dairy farming will be further capitalized and scaled.