中国食糖进口贸易“大国效应”分析

Analysis on the Large Country Effect on Chinese Sugar Import

近年来,中国已经成为世界上最大的食糖进口国。中国食糖进口量的改变是否会引起国际食糖市场上食糖价格的波动,即中国的食糖贸易是否存在"大国效应",这一问题值得深入研究。以"进口贸易大国"和"进口贸易小国"模型为切入点,探讨中国食糖进口类型,然后利用格兰杰因果关系检验测度中国食糖进口量变化和国际市场食糖价格之间是否存在因果关系,结果发现中国食糖进口不存在"大国效应"。最后,对中国食糖产业现状进行了分析,并从贸易和生产角度提出相关政策建议。

In recent years, China has become the largest sugar importer in the world. Whether the change of Chinese sugar import will cause the international sugar price fluctuation, that is, whether there is "large country effect" on Chinese sugar trade, this issue needs further study. The authors took the "large import country" model and "small import country" model as the base to analyze the type of Chinese sugar trade, and then used Granger causality test to detect whether there was a casual relation between the change of sugar import in China and the international market price of sugar. The results showed that there was no "big country effect" in China’s sugar import. Finally, the status quo of China’s sugar industry was analyzed and relevant policy recommendations were put forward from the perspective of trade and production.