关于长周期的文献综述

A Literature Review on Long Wave Theory

20世纪20年代,康德拉季耶夫奠基性地提出了经济长波周期理论,因此长波又被命名为“康德拉季耶夫周期”,也称“康波周期”。但学术界关于经济长周期并没有一个明确的定义,只是指出重要经济变量会呈现以40-60年为周期的重复波动。并且通过对长周期研究可以发现,长波周期已不再是一个单纯的经济问题,其必然涉及到包括经济在内的社会结构等诸多范式的调整。虽然关于长周期的研究主要集中在经验分析的层面,但随着研究的深入,长周期和其他周期之间的关系,长周期在国别之间的协动性等问题也引起了关注。虽然长周期尚未进入经济学研究的主流,但经济周期分析中增加长周期的视角,对于理解经济的周期波动仍然具有重要参考价值。

In the 1920s, Kondratieff laid the foundation for the theory of economic long-wave cycle, so the long wave was named “Kondratieff cycle”. However, there is no clear definition of the long-term economic cycle in academia. It only indicates that some important economic variables exhibit repeated fluctuations in the cycle of 40-60 years. Through numerous studies, long wave is no longer a simple economic problem, and it must contain the adjustment of social structure including the economy. Although the research on long wave is mainly focusing on empirical analysis, with deepening research, attention has been paid to the relationship between long wave and other cycles, and the coordination of long wave across countries. Although the long wave has not yet entered the mainstream of economic research, adding the long wave perspective to the economic cycle analysis is still valuable for understanding the cyclical fluctuations of the economy.