大国竞争战略下特朗普政府对台政策及美台关系走势

The Trump Administration's Policy toward Taiwan and the Trend of US-Taiwan Relations under the Strategy of Great Power Competition

当前美国特朗普政府对外战略重心回归"大国政治",在对华政策方面以冷战思维为导向,将中国定位为"战略竞争对手",对华战略从奥巴马时期的战略"接触+遏制"转向战略"竞争+遏制",并在此战略布局下,重视台湾对华的"战略遏制"和"战略平衡"作用,在美国立法和行政亲台保守派的推动下,不断提升美台之间的军事、政治关系,试图一方面通过重塑台海均势、利用台湾问题对中国进行战略牵制,另一方面作为与中国政府讨价还价的政治筹码,而这将使中美关系的政治基础因台湾问题遭受冲击,中美关系的不稳定性和台湾问题的复杂性增加。

At present,the US Trump administration’s foreign strategic focus has back to“Great Power Politics”.Guided by the thinking of the cold war,the Trump administration defined China as a“strategic competitor,”and shifted its strategy toward China from Obama’s strategic“contact+containment”to the strategic“competitive+deterrence”.Under The strategic layout,Trump attaches great importance to Taiwan’s“strategic containment”and“strategic balance”in China,and continues to promote the US-Taiwan relationship under the impetus of the US legislative and administrative pro-taiwan conservatives.On one hand,by reshaping the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait,the US administration use the Taiwan Question to contain China;on the other hand,it also acts as a bargaining political bargaining chip with China,which will shake the political foundation of Sino-U.S.relations.The instability of Sino-U.S.relations and the complexity of the Taiwan Question have increased act in response.