基于椭球模型下的高校课堂教学可靠性评估

文章针对高校"课堂教学失效"这一问题提出了基于椭球模型的故障树分析方法,实现了对高校课堂教学的可靠性的量化评估,对改进教学有指导意义。首先建立以高校"课堂教学失效"为顶事件的故障树模型;然后基于课堂教学数据信息的不充分性和动态特性,采用椭球模型来描述底事件,最后基于蒙特卡洛法理论在椭球模型下计算了顶事件的发生概率,从而实现对高校课程的可靠性评估。

This paper proposes a fault tree analysis method based on ellipsoid model for the problem of "invalidation of classroom teaching" in colleges and universities, which realizes the quantitative evaluation of the reliability of classroom teaching in colleges and universities, and has guiding significance for improving teaching. Firstly, the fault tree model based on the "invalidation of classroom teaching" in colleges and universities is established. Then, based on the inadequacy and dynamic characteristics of the classroom teaching data information, the ellipsoid model is used to describe the bottom event. Finally, the probability of the top event is calculated under the ellipsoid model based on Monte Carlo method theory, so as to realize the reliability evaluation of college courses.