气象因素变化与虫害发生的灰色关联分析

Grey Correlation Analysis of Meteorological Variation and Pest Occurrence

为探究气象因素变化对虫害发生的影响规律,以21 a落叶松毛虫幼虫发生面积为主系列,相应时间节点气象数据为映射量进行灰色关联分析,得出其灰色关联度排序为:全年极端最低气温(γ_(09)=0. 87)> 3月份降水量(γ_(03)=0. 86)=8月份降水量(γ_(08)=0. 86)> 4月份连续无降水日数(γ_(06)=0. 83)> 3月份连续无降水日数(γ_(04)=0. 81)> 4月份降水量(γ_(05)=0. 78)> 7月份降水量(γ_(07)=0. 72)> 4月份一候平均气温(γ_(02)=0. 66)>繁殖期平均风速(γ_(010)=0. 64)> 3月份六候平均气温(γ_(01)=0. 60)。通过绝对关联度概念的引入分析验证计算结果:全年极端最低气温对虫害发生影响最大,3月六候平均气温与虫害发生的关联度较小。因此可从上年8月降水量、全年极端气温、3月降水量为切入点预测气象相似年落叶松毛虫是否大发生,为森防部门提供参考。

In order to explore the rule of the influence of meteorological factors on the occurrence of insect pests,the Dendrolimus superans occurrence area was used as main sequence and the time node meteorological data were used as the gray correlation analysis.The gray correlation degree was sorted as: extreme minimum temperature throughout the year (γ 09 =0.87)>precipitation in March (γ 03 =0.86)= precipitation in August (γ 08 =0.86)>consecutive arid days in April (γ 06 =0.83)>consecutive arid days in March (γ 04 =0.81)>precipitation in April (γ 05 =0.78)>precipitation in July (γ 07 =0.72)>average temperature in first five days of April (γ 02 =0.66)>average wind speed during breeding season (γ 010 =0.64)>average temperature in last five days of March (γ 01 =0.60).Analyze and verify the calculation results by the introduction of absolute relation degree,which is: extreme minimum temperature throughout the year influence the pests most,while the average temperature in last five days of March influence the pests lest.Therefore,the occurrence of Dendrolimus superans in meteorological similarity year can be predicted by analyzing the precipitation in August,extreme minimum temperature throughout the year and precipitation in March,which provides the reference for the forest defense department.