水库群-河道水沙分配动态博弈模型理论框架

Theoretical Framework of Dynamic Game-Theory Model for Water and Sediment Allocation Between Cascade Reservoirs and Lower Channel

与传统的定量分析方法和最优化方法相比,博弈论能较好地模拟不同方面的冲突,并将问题的许多特性囊括在模型当中,在缺乏数据信息的情况下也能获得模型可能的解。通过对相关文献的梳理和归纳,从博弈论在水资源配置模型中应用模式的分类、博弈论在水资源配置模型中的应用思路及水库群-河道水沙分配动态博弈概念模型的构建等3个方面,对水库群-河道水沙分配动态博弈模型理论框架进行了探讨,指出现阶段利用博弈论解决水资源冲突等方面存在的不足主要包括:①利用博弈论系统梳理总结并构建水资源冲突协调机制理论体系;②综合考虑水沙资源特性,基于博弈论构建不同用水户水沙资源动态分配模型。

Compared with those traditional quantitative-analyzing methods and optimization methods, game theory can better simulate different aspects of conflicts and include many features of the problem in the model. In the absence of data information, the possible solutions of model can also be obtained through game theory. Through literature analysis, this paper set up a theoretical framework of dynamic game-theory model for water and sediment allocation, which included three parts: the categories of applying modes, the applying technology roadmap, the dynamic game-theory model for water and sediment allocation between cascade reservoirs and lower channel. In addition, some deficiencies were proposed, mainly including: a) the construction of theoretical framework of water conflict coordination mechanism and;b) the construction of dynamic allocation model of water and sediment resources between different users, considering the characteristics of water and sediment resources comprehensively based on game theory.