完善中国互联网,推动经济与税收发展——基于省级层面数据的实证分析

I mproving China's Internet and Promoting Economic and Tax Development—— Based on provincial level data

互联网自上世纪九十年代以来迅速拓展,已成为当今中国推动经济发展和社会进步的重要信息基础设施。互联网对中国经济和社会的影响从长期来看,是积极、正面的;但从短期视角看,互联网也给零售业带来了巨大冲击,而政府为了进一步完善互联网,采取各种措施,包括税收政策来支持互联网发展。目前中国互联网发展对实体经济和税收的影响如何、是否还需要继续采取积极的税收政策来支持互联网发展等问题的回答需要更多的实证研究来支撑。为此,文章以2 0 0 3-2 0 1 4年中国3 0个省区(除西藏外)的社会消费品零售总额、 G D P、税收收入为被解释变量构建三个面板数据模型进行实证分析。实证分析结果发现,互联网对零售业、实体经济和税收的存在显著正向影响。

The Internet sector has been developing fast in China since 1990s and serving as essential information infrastructure,which stimulates both economic development and social improvement. From a long-term perspective,the Internet is of great benefit to China’s economy and society;whereas in the short run,the Internet has a huge crowding out effect on the retail sector. In the meanwhile,the Chinese government is taking steps to further support and promote the development of the Internet,including discretionary tax cuts. At present,more empirical researches are needed to study how the development of Internet sector affects the real economy and the government’s tax revenues as well as whether tax policies are still needed to further back the development of the Internet sector. Hence,this paper studies these questions by building up a panel data model with three explained variables: retail sales of consumables,GDP and tax revenues. Evidence is from 30 provinces in China,except Tibet,from 2003 to 2014. Our study shows that the development of the Internet sector has a significantly positive effect on the retail sales,the real economy and government’s tax income.