共享单车对社会经济与环境的影响——基于纽约市1993—2015年面板数据的实证研究

The Impact of Shared Bicycle on Social Economy and Environment——An Empirical Study Based on New York City Panel Data (1993—2015)

评估共享单车对交通、经济、社会和环境等方面的影响,以纽约市1993—2015年面板数据为样本,分别运用BP人工神经网络、Granger因果关系检验、多元回归分析等理论,构建出行方式选择、雇员—经济反映、汽油—毒气减排等模型,从定量角度分析了共享单车对社会各层面的影响,得出结论:共享单车工程的实施使2015年纽约市的汽车出行量呈下降趋势,公共交通和骑行的使用量极大增加,城市雇员数量比预期明显增加,减少了CO、CH、NO等大气污染物的排放等。

Aiming at evaluating the impact of shared bicycle on transportation, economy, society and environment, this paper constructs models of travel mode selection, employee-economic response, gasoline-toxic gas emission reduction, etc., taking panel data of New York City from 1993 to 2015 as samples, using BP artificial neural network, Granger causality test, multiple regression analysis and other theories respectively, and quantitatively analyses the impact of shared bicycle on different levels of the community. The results show that the implementation of the shared bicycle project helps reduce the number of car trips in New York City in 2015, increases the use of public transport and cycling, increases the number of urban employees than expected, and reduce the emission of CO, CH, NO and other atmospheric pollutants.