基于系统动力学的区域风电绩效评价

A System Dynamics Simulation for Wind Power Performance Evaluation

在发电行业中,风力发电具有区别于火电、水电等常规能源发电的技术经济特性。为深入研究风电的经济特性,提出风电经济效益的系统动力学分析方法,从需求侧、电网侧、发电侧出发构建SD模型。该模型模拟是一种结构—功能的因果机理性模拟。仿真结果表明:需求侧响应将通过发电成本机制影响经济发展;发电侧以及输电侧的技术进步可以有效提高风电利用效率,减少CO_2排放量;合理的政府调控力度有利于风电经济效益与环境效益共同提高。

In the power generation industry, wind power generation has technical and economic characteristics that are different from the conventional power generation such as thermal power and hydropower. In order to study the economic characteristics of wind power, this paper proposes a system dynamics model for wind power performance evaluation. The SD model is constructed from the demand side, the power grid side and the power generation side with wind power production and demand side response taken into account. And the simulation of this model is a kind of structure-function causal mechanism simulation. The simulation results indicate that the demand side response affects the economic development through the generation cost mechanism, and the technical progress in the power generation side and the transmission side can effectively improve the efficiency of the wind power utilization and reduce the CO2 emission, and the reasonable government regulation is beneficial to the improvement of both the economic and environmental benefits of the wind power.