含风电的发电系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of the Generating System Containing Wind Power

为了研究风电对发电系统可靠性的影响,使用了序贯蒙特卡罗模拟。建立了基于马尔科夫链的多状态风电机组模型,采用了基于双重抽样的序贯蒙特卡罗模拟。建立了传统发电机组的"额定-停运"双态模型,并使用最小累积风险度法给出了发电机组的检修计划。分别以综合可靠性指标和well-being指标作为可靠性指标,用IEEE-RTS79系统进行可靠性分析,并分析了风电的不同接入方案。

In this paper, the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation is used to study the impact of wind power on the reliability of the generating system. Firstly, a multiple-state wind farm model is formed based on Markov chain, and the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation based on double sampling is used. Secondly, a “Rated-Outage”dual-state model of the traditional generating unit is applied, and the maintenance plan of the generator unit is given by using the minimum cumulative risk method. Finally, taking comprehensive reliability index and well-being index as reliability index respectively, the system reliability is analyzed by using the IEEE- RTS79 system, and the different access schemes of wind power are analyzed.