“印太”战略的决定因素、发展趋向及中国应对

Indo-Pacific Strategy: Determinants, Future Prospects and China's Response

"印太"战略作为一个尚处于形成演进阶段的不成熟战略,加深对其认识理解极其关键。从相关不同行为体的各自角度看,"印太"战略具有不同的意涵与目标。决定其交集形成部分大小的关键因素,本文认为是安全困境和经贸合作这两大变量。各相关行为体面临的安全困境问题愈突出,其指向对象愈集中,则战略共识愈易建立,"印太"战略的地缘政治经济影响力愈大,反之则反是。与此同时,各相关行为体经贸合作愈密切,则"印太"战略愈益朝着建设性的方向发展,"印太"战略对地区政治经济秩序的冲击愈小,反之则反是。未来"印太"战略能否成为影响地区格局的根本性因素,"印太"战略能否令美国亚太联盟战略得到强化和新生,应取决于域内主要行为体的政策选择与外交互动结果。

Security dilemma and economic cooperation are major variables that determine convergence among relevant actors. The more severe the security dilemma is, the easier the strategic consensus might be established. The closer the economic and trade cooperation is, the more constructive the Indo-Pacific strategy might be. Whether the future Indo-Pacific strategy can become a fundamental factor affecting the regional order while renew the US Asia-Pacific alliance is largely depended on policy choices of major players in the region and the outcomes of diplomatic interaction.