中国交通基础设施与城市就业增长时空演变研究

Transportation Infrastructure and the Spatial-temporal Evolution of Urban Employment in China

实证层面利用2003—2015年中国283个地级及以上城市的动态面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计方法,分析交通基础设施对城市就业增长时空演变的影响。结果发现:(1)交通基础设施对城市就业增长具有显著的促进作用,如果忽略内生性问题这种促进作用,会初低估;(2)交通基础设施对城市第三产业就业增长的促进作用大于对城市第二产业就业增长的促进作用;(3)交通基础设施越发达的地区,交通基础设施对城市就业增长的促进作用越大,即:东部地带>中部地带>西部地带。

Employment growth is a key indicator for quality increase as well as the spillover effect of infrastructure.Based on general equilibrium analysis,this paper first discusses the influence of transportation infrastructure on urban employment growth.It finds that the influence depends on the share of transportation and land in expenditure of urban residents,elasticity of transportation and land supply,agglomeration economies and the employment adjustment rate.It then analyzes empirically the dynamic panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2015 to find out the influence by system GMM method.We have the following results.First,transportation infrastructure has significantly positive influence on urban employment growth,and its positive influence will be underestimated if endogeneity is ignored;second,the positive influence on tertiary industry is greater than that on secondary industry;third,the more developed the transportation infrastructure is,the greater the positive influence is,and the descending order is East China,Central China and West China.