中国鸡蛋市场走势及其对中小蛋鸡养殖户的影响分析

Analysis of China's Egg Market Trend and Its Influence on Small and Medium-sized Layer Farmers

基于历史数据,剖析了中国蛋鸡市场走势及其历史变化形势,揭示了中国鸡蛋市场价格历史变化特征;基于鸡蛋市场价格数据,利用ARIMA模型对2019年4—12月中国鸡蛋价格进行预测分析,结果表明预测周期内中国鸡蛋市场价格表现平稳;进一步针对中国中小蛋鸡养殖户开展分析,剖析了大企业挤占市场、养殖粪污环保税、养殖环境标准等因素给中小养殖户带来的巨大压力。最后,提出了中小蛋鸡养殖户应对以上不利因素的具体养殖策略。

Based on the historical data, the historical change of the egg market and the egg market situation in China were analyzed, and historical change characteristics of the egg market price were revealed. Based on data of egg market price, ARIMA model was used to forecast China's egg price from April to December 2019, and it was concluded that the performance of China's egg market price would be stable in the forecast cycle. Further analysis was carried out on small and medium-sized layer farmers in China and the huge pressure on small and medium-sized layer farmers was analyzed from such factors as large enterprises' occupation of the market, environmental protection tax on breeding wastes, and breeding environmental standards. Finally, breeding strategies were put forward for the small and medium-sized layer farmers to deal with above adverse factors.