2009-2015年沈阳地区布鲁氏菌病疫情的时空特征分析

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristic analysis of human brucellosis epidemic in Shenyang,China,2009—2015

目的分析2009-2015年沈阳地区布鲁氏菌病(以下简称布病)的时空分布变化特征,为制定本地区布病防控策略提供循证依据。方法布病监测方法按《全国人间布病监测方案》和《沈阳市人间布病监测方案》进行。2009-2015年人间布病疫情资料来自于沈阳市疾病预防控制中心传染病监测数据库。应用描述性流行病学方法分析布病疫情特征,进一步结合ArcMAP软件分析布病疫情的时空转换特征,绘制沈阳地区布病的时空分布图。结果 7年间沈阳地区共报告布病患者1 356例,其中2014年沈阳市区出现1例死亡病例;布病年均发病率的波动区间为(0.46～4.59)/10万,趋势性检验χ~2=541.44,P<0.001,呈逐年递增趋势,而发病率增幅呈逐年递减趋势;春夏季为发病高峰期;病例以30～59岁男性农民居多。从时空分布图上看,2009年布病发病数和发病率最高的都是新民市,而到2015年发病数最高的是沈阳市区;发病率最高的是紧邻市区的法库县;从地理信息上来看,病例高发区由西部的新民市向东部的沈阳市和法库县推移,疫区范围也由2009年的7个地区,扩大为2015年的13个地区。结论 2009-2015年间沈阳地区布病疫情的时空变化特征为:随着时间的推移,疫区由局部地区扩展为整个地区,病例高发区由西部的新民市向东部的沈阳市和法库县推移。

To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of brucellosis in Shenyang area from 2009 to 2015,and provide evidence-based evidence for the development of prevention and control strategies for disease in this area.The monitoring of human brucellosis proceeded in accordance with the National Human Brucellosis Monitoring Method and the Human Brucellosis Monitoring Method,Shenyang.The data for human brucellosis from 2009 to 2015 were obtained from the communicable disease surveillance database in the Shenyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention and its epidemic characteristics were analyzed with the methods of descriptive epidemiology.The spatial and temporal changes of human brucellosis were further analyzed using the ArcMAP software to produce a visualization of spatiotemporal patterns.Results showed that 1 356 human brucellosis cases were reported in Shenyang from 2009 to 2015,including one death in Shenyang City in 2014.The incidence varied from 0.46 to 4.59 per 100 000 during the seven year span(trend testχ^2=541.441,P<0.001)and displayed a prominent upward trend year after year,whereas its rate of increase displayed a downward trend.The peak incidence appeared in spring and summer of every year.A majority of the patients were 30-59-year-old male farmers.In 2009,the spatiotemporal distribution chart showed that the number of new cases and incidence rate of human brucellosis were both highest in Xinmin.In 2015,however,Shenyang City had the highest number of new cases and the neighboring Faku County had the highest incidence rate.The geographical analysis showed that areas of high incidence shifted from Xinmin in the west to Shenyang City and Faku County in the east,and the epidemic area expanded from 7 regions in 2009 to 13 regions in 2015.The changes in spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in the Shenyang area from 2009 to 2015 involve the epidemic area expanding from local areas to cover entire regions,and the areas of highest incidence shifting from the geographically-western Xinmin to the geographically-eastern Shenyang City and Faku County.