发展中国家国际债务资本开放的条件分析——基于国内债务水平的研究

Analysis of the Conditions for Debt Capital Flows Liberalization in Developing Countries—Research Based on Countries' Debt Level

本文通过理论模型和实证研究分析国际债务资本的开放所需要的条件。通过建立理论框架,本文研究了国际债务资本对国内经济的影响机制,国际债务资本流入可以改善一国的流动性环境,降低利率和扩大投资,但是当一国债务水平较高时,债务市场的违约风险上升和收益率降低,首先冲击国际债务资本,从而导致国际债务资本流出,最终不利于一国的经济增长。通过实证分析研究国内因素导致的国际债务资本开放的门槛效应。因此,本文认为,随着经济开放性的增强,一国应保持合理的国内债务水平以降低风险。

The experience of developing countries' capital account liberalization shows that capital flows liberalization is generally more beneficial and less risky if a country has reached a certain level or“threshold”conditions. This paper analyzes these conditions through theoretical model and empirical model. In this paper, a theoretical model is constructed, in which international debt capital can promote investment by alleviating the liquidity of one country and reducing the interest of one country. However, the default risk of debt market will be rising when the debt level is high, which will affect the international debt capital as well as the economic development. Therefore, the paper suggests that a reasonable and suitable domestic debt level should be set depending on each country's own conditions.