“百年未有之大变局”:世界向何处去

"Great Change Unseen in a Century":Where is the World Going?

正确理解"百年未有之大变局"应当从三个方面来看:"百年未有之大变局"的物质基础是什么?这种变局是怎样的变局?它正在把世界引向何处?作者认为,"百年未有之大变局"存在的物质基础是,在国际分工中中国的地位正在上升,初步进入国际分工引领者行列,而传统的大国作用正在相对下降。中国在世界经济中的影响力正是这种"百年未有之大变局"最重要的经济基础。这种大变局只是一种温和的世界力量对比的变化与秩序的再调整,不是一种根本的世界秩序变革。在当下的"百年未有之大变局"中,各种势力都在为世界秩序的再调整积极努力,以期使未来的世界秩序调整有利于自己。因此,"百年未有之大变局"并不意味着世界自然走向公平、繁荣和进步,它的最终走向取决于各种势力的力量对比,取决于各种势力的主观努力。在这种历史关头,中国既需要积极作为,推动世界秩序向安全、公正和共同繁荣的方向发展,又需要有危机意识、风险意识和底线思维意识,注意防范这一变动中潜在的各种风险。

The "Great Change Unseen in a Century" could be correctly understood from three aspects: What is its material basis? What is the change? Where is it leading the world? The author believes that the material basis is that China has gained a higher position in the international division of labor and initially become one of the leaders in terms of international division of labor, while the role of the traditional major powers is declining relatively. China’s influence in the world economy is the most important economic foundation of this "Great Change Unseen in a Century". This Great Change is only a change in the balance of forces in the world and a readjustment of the world order, it is not a fundamental change in the world order. In the face of the current "Great Change", various forces are actively working for the readjustment of the world order so as to benefit from the future world order readjustment. Therefore, the "Great Change" does not mean that the world will naturally move towards fairness,prosperity and progress. Its final trend depends on the balance of power between various forces and what actions they might take. At this historic juncture, China not only need to actively make the world order develop towards security, justice and common prosperity,but also need to be aware of risks, have a bottom line thinking, and pay attention to guarding against potential risks in the process of the great change.