基于SHERPA的环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估

Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potential of Air Quality Based on SHERPA Model

分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。

SHERPA(Screening for High Emission Reduction Potential on Air) is an integrated assessment model which focus on air pollution emission reduction scenario simulation. Its fundamental theory and modeling method,source and receptor relationships are introduced,in order to compare with other scenario simulation model methods.One of the key values is spatial flexibility,namely the possibility to assess the contributions from different regions to air quality at any given location with fast responses. The SHERPA tool is shown to be particularly helpful in addressing the following tasks:source allocation,governance and the assessment of scenario impacts. Application of the methodology over the France for annual averaged PM2.5,PM10 and NO2 concentrations demonstrates to how this tool could support decision makers in prioritizing interventions and in coordinating measures across governance levels. That could give some suggestions for air quality forecasting,environmental managemental measures formulation and effectiveness evaluation.