中国经济“脱实向虚”背景下最优货币政策规则研究

The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule against the Background of China's Economic “Shifting from Real to Fictitious”

本文构建了一个刻画中国经济"脱实向虚"内在形成机理的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究中央银行最优货币政策规则的政策效果。经验研究发现:单一数量规则和利率规则分别在稳定物价和实体经济波动方面具有相对优势,而混合型货币政策调控模式可促使二者优势互补强化,实现对宏观经济的最优调控;混合型最优货币政策规则能够缓解经济脱实向虚背景下的政策调控矛盾,通过弱化抵押约束机制对经济周期的放大效应,抑制房价涨幅和信贷扩张行为,在平抑实体经济波动的同时发挥稳定金融和防范金融风险的作用,为引导经济脱虚向实、促进房地产市场与实体经济协调发展营造稳健适宜的金融货币环境。

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which can show the internal formation mechanism of economic shifting from real to fictitious in China. On this basis, it further simulates and studies the choice of the optimal monetary policy rule decided by the central bank, and finds that:(i) The quantitative rule and the interest rate rule have a relative advantage respectively over price stabilisation and output stabilisation. The mixed rule can promote complementarity and strengthening of the advantages between the quantitative rule and the interest rate rule, achieving optimal macroeconomic control.(ii) The optimal mixed-type monetary policy rule can alleviate contradictions in policy adjustment in the context of economic shifting from real to fictitious and restrict the housing price and credit expansion by weakening the amplification effect of the collateral constraint mechanism on macroeconomic fluctuations. Mixed-type monetary policy plays a role in stabilising finance and preventing financial risks, while suppressing fluctuations in the real sector, and it creates a suitable financial and monetary environment for guiding capital to flow back into the real economy sector and promoting the coordinated development of the real estate market and the real economy.