城投债为何持续增长:基于新口径的实证分析

Why Do Municipal Investment Bonds Continue to Grow?——An Empirical Analysis Based on New Statistical Scope

包括城投债在内的地方政府债务规模持续增长,是近年来我国经济社会运行中的一个突出现象。作者利用一套新口径(2006—2015年)的城投债基础数据库,克服Wind整理的城投债数据存在的诸多缺陷,并以此为基础,结合地级市财经变量及主要官员信息等,实证分析地方财政压力、官员晋升压力和城市发展压力对城投债扩张的影响。研究结果显示:(1)财政压力并非导致城投债扩张的主要原因;(2)受晋升压力影响,市委书记处于特定年龄段(55~58岁)的地级市更倾向于发行城投债并扩大城投债规模;(3)在承受较大发展压力(包括经济发展水平、工业化、城镇化和固定资产投资等方面的赶超压力)的地级市,晋升压力对城投债规模的刺激效应更为突出。而且,晋升压力和发展压力对城投债扩张的影响在主动负债和被动负债、债券资金用途、债券期限、政府担保、发行地是否属于城市群等方面呈现明显的异质性。上述研究发现为深刻认识中国地方政府债务问题,合理制定相关政策,以化解地方政府债务风险提供了科学依据。

The continuous growth of the scale of local government debt (including municipal investment bonds issued by local financing platforms) is a prominent phenomenon in China s economic and social operation in recent years. In order to overcome the shortcomings of the data of municipal investment bonds with Wind statistical scope, the authors use a new database of municipal investment bonds (Mao et al., 2019). Based on this database, using the data of municipal investment bonds issued by prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015 under the new statistical scope, as well as the financial variables of prefecture-level cities and the information of key officials, the authors made an empirical analysis of the expansion of municipal investment bonds under the pressure of local finance, promotion of officials and urban development. The results show that:(1) Fiscal pressure is not the main reason for the expansion of municipal investment bonds;(2) Influenced by promotion pressure, prefecture-level cities whose Party secretaries are in a certain age group (55-58 years old) are more inclined to issue municipal investment bonds and expand the scale of municipal investment bonds;(3) In the prefecture-level cities under greater development pressure (including the level of economic development, industrialization, urbanization and investment in fixed assets, etc.), the stimulating effect of promotion pressure on the scale of municipal investment bonds is more prominent. These conclusions are very robust. Further analysis shows that the impact of promotion pressure and development pressure on the expansion of municipal investment bonds shows obvious heterogeneity in the aspects of active and passive liabilities, the use of bond funds, bond maturity, government guarantee and whether the place of issuance belongs to certain urban agglomeration. The above findings provide a scientific basis for a deep understanding of the debt problem of local governments in China and a reasonable formulation of relevant policies to mitigate the risk of local government debt.