中国经济新常态下的经济周期更迭与驱动因素转换研究——兼论新周期的形成与识别

The Economic Cycle Change and the Driving Factors in the New Normal of China's Economy——Research on the Formation and Identification of the New Economic Cycle

本文从经济周期驱动因素转换的视角出发,综合分析本轮经济周期拖平尾部平面的形成机理,并对未来新经济周期的类型进行初步地识别和判断。研究结果显示:首先,投资周期由繁荣转向衰退是现阶段经济收缩的主导诱因,表明朱格拉周期依旧是本次经济周期转换的主导因素;其次,技术长周期的顺利转换将为长期经济增长提供重要推力,但受制于技术更迭时间较长,未来增长动能的释放仍需必要时间;最后,得益于"三去一降一补"战略的有序实施,现阶段产能过剩问题已基本得到化解,短期库存因素对经济的影响已极为有限。总体而言,现阶段经济周期的转换在很大程度上取决于中长期要素的作用强度,因此,经济增长将有很大概率在中高速阶段形成局部稳态。

From the perspective of the transition of economic cycle drivers, this paper comprehensively analyzes the formation mechanism of the current economic cycle to smooth the tail plane, and makes a preliminary identification and judgment of the types of future new economic cycles. The results show that: First, the transition from prosperity to recession is the leading cause of economic contraction at this stage, indicating that the Jugla cycle is still the dominant factor in the economic cycle transition. Second, the smooth transition of the technology long cycle will provide important thrust for long-term economic growth,but subject to the long period of technological change, the release of future growth kinetic energy will still take time;Finally,thanks to the orderly implementation of the "cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing corporate costs and shoring up weak spots" strategy, the overcapacity problem has been basically resolved at this stage. The impact of short-term inventory factors on the economy has been extremely limited. In general, the current economic cycle conversion depends to a large extent on the intensity of the medium to long-term factors. Therefore, economic growth will have a high probability of forming a local steady state in the medium and high-speed phase.