强势美元周期、去美元化浪潮与人民币国际化战略调整

Research on the Strong Dollar Cycle, De-dollarization Wave and Adjustment of RMB's Internationalization Strategy

现阶段国际货币体系运行呈现强势美元周期和去美元化浪潮并存的显著特征。由于受到美联储加息与缩表的双重支撑,美元汇率上升态势明显,并由此引发了部分新兴市场货币危机。为了应对美元霸权以及"美国优先"的反全球化政策取向,全球去美元化浪潮逐步升级,进而可能引发全球货币体系的解构和重构。强势美元周期对人民币国际化会形成挑战,但去美元化浪潮对人民币国际化会带来契机。未来的人民币国际化战略应该顺应国际货币体系运行的新特征,弱化强势美元周期对人民币国际化的负向冲击,强化去美元化浪潮对人民币国际化的正向影响,在去美元化浪潮时间窗口关闭之前对人民币国际化战略进行调整,使人民币国际化水平再上新台阶。

At this stage, the operation of the international monetary system presents a distinctive feature of the coexistence of a strong dollar cycle and a wave of de-dollarization. Due to the double support of the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction,the US dollar exchange rate has risen sharply, which has led to some emerging market currency crises. In order to cope with the US dollar hegemony and the anti-globalization policy orientation of "US priority", the global wave of de-dollarization has gradually escalated, which may lead to the deconstruction and reconstruction of the global monetary system. Strong dollar cycle will pose a challenge to the internationalization of the RMB, but the wave of de-dollarization will bring opportunities for the internationalization of the RMB. The future RMB's internationalization strategy should conform to the new characteristics of the operation of the international monetary system, weaken the negative impact of the strong dollar cycle on the internationalization of the RMB, strengthen the positive impact of the de-dollarization wave on the internationalization of the RMB, and adjust RMB's internationalization strategy before the end of de-dollarization wave. In this way, RMB's internationalization can be increased to a new level.