澳洲“国家可负担租金计划”移植效果预判——基于合成控制法对深圳房价影响的评估

Pre Assessment of the Impact of National Rental Affordability Scheme on Housing Prices in Shenzhen——Counterfactual Perspective based on Synthetic Control Method

澳洲"国家租房可负担计划(NRAS)"政策有效解决了低收入群体住房问题,该政策能否移植到中国以及可能的移植效果值得研究。本文利用澳洲房地产基本面数据,引进国家制度参数和城市指数,采用合成控制法,用澳洲城市构造中国深圳。通过对比真实深圳和虚拟深圳房价走势,判断NRAS政策在中国深圳实施对房价影响的效果。结果表明,如果深圳引进NRAS政策,深圳房价将出现小幅波动趋稳态势。在"房住不炒"背景下,建议深圳引进NRAS政策来平稳房价。

Australia’s NRAS policy solved the housing problem of low-income groups effectively. Whether this policy can be transplanted to China and its possible transplantation effect deserves to be studied. Using the basic data of Australian real estate, introducing the national institutional parameters and city index, using the synthetic control method, the Australian city is used to construct Shenzhen, China. By comparing the real Shenzhen and the virtual Shenzhen housing price trends, we can judge the effect of NRAS policy implementation on housing prices in Shenzhen, China.The result shows that if Shenzhen adopts the NRAS policy,Shenzhen’s house price will fluctuate slightly. In the context of "housing and not speculation", it is recommended that the government of Shenzhen introduce the plan to stabilize Shenzhen’s housing prices.