基于动态CGE模型的陕西省煤炭去产能战略的影响评价研究

Evaluation and Route of Coal De-capacity Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model in Shaanxi

从能源-经济-环境的研究视角出发,采用动态CGE模型,研究了2020—2035年煤炭去产能对陕西省各行业发展以及环境的影响程度。研究结果表明:煤炭去产能虽然会抑制财政收入以及经济总量,但却会促进居民福利及居民收入的增加。此外,煤炭去产能对该地区的大气污染物及温室气体减排产生了积极的效果。

From the perspective of energy-economy-environment research,the dynamic CGE model was used to study the impact of coal de-capacity on the development of various industries and the environment in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to2035. The results show that although coal de-capacity will curb fiscal revenue and economic aggregate,it will promote the welfare of residents and the increase of residents’ income. In addition,coal de-capacity has a positive effect on atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas emission reductions in Shaanxi.