美俄印中之间的战略博弈与不确定性

Strategic Game between the United States, Russia and India and the Uncertainties

当今世界正处在力量对比大变革、大调整阶段,充满挑战和不确定性。就美国、俄罗斯、中国和印度而言,美国是守成大国,中国与印度是崛起大国,俄罗斯地位比较特殊,既是守成大国,也是崛起大国。中美印俄之间进行着复杂的战略博弈。美国在努力维持自己的地位,"管控"崛起大国;崛起中的大国则竭力避免守成大国干扰,最优选项是争取其支持和协助,采用"最小摩擦力"原则,顺利完成综合国力的提升,进入"一流大国俱乐部",进而获得切实的利益。国内发展、综合国力提升是维持大国地位或者崛起的先决条件,有利的外部环境则是重要推动因素。

The world today is in the midst of a major change and adjustment in balance of power, with considerable challenges and uncertainties. As far as the United States, Russia, China and India are concerned, the United States is a major power on a defending position, China and India are rising powers, and Russia has a special status. It is both a major power and a rising power.There is a complicated strategic game between these four countries. The United States is striving to maintain its position and "control" the rising powers; the rising powers are striving to avoid interference of the existing superpower, and their best option is to win its support and assistance and adopt the principle of "minimum friction" so as to successfully complete the improvement of their overall national strength. By this, they could enter the "major powers club" and get tangible benefits. Domestic development and increased overall national strength are the prerequisites for maintaining the major-power status or rising to be a major power, while the favorable external environment is an important driving factor.