本福特定律在部门决算数据质量评估中的应用研究

A Study on the Application of Benford's Law to Evaluating Data Quality of Departmental Final Accounts

根据本福特定律,自然生成的数据集(含会计数据)的首位数的分布服从对数分布律,第三位以后近似服从均匀分布律,经过人为操纵或存在系统性错误的数据集会偏离本福特定律。文章应用本福特定律,对宁夏19个市县2011-2017年汇总部门支出决算数据的首位数和末位数与本福特定律的拟合度及其综合拟合度实施分析和检验,结果表明,其共133个数据单元的部门支出决算数据拟合度综合评级都是优或良,优良率为100%,支出决算数据质量优异,不存在人为操纵数据或系统性错误。文章通过R语言编程,探索了客观、高效、简便评估部门决算数据质量的解决方案,具有实际应用价值。

According to Benford's law, the first digit of naturally generated data sets conform to logarithm distribution, and the third digit and thereafter approximately conforms to uniform distribution. Hence data sets which are manipulated or there are systematically errors will deviate from Benford's law. This study, by applying Benford's law, analyzes department's final accounts of Ningxia* s 19 counties from year 2011 to 2017, and testes their Goodness of Fits of first, last digits and the generals to Benford* s law. The results show that the grades of 133 data units fit very well to Benford's law, indicating high data quality of those final accounts, excluding the possibility of data manipulation or system error. The study explores a solution to solve the problem of evaluating the data quality of final accounts by developing a computer program using R language, which is of practical value to facilitate the application of the Benford's law.