房价上涨影响城镇居民消费的非线性关系研究——基于金融发展水平门槛

Research on the nonlinear relationship of the influence of housing price rise on urban household consumption——Based on the threshold of financial development

选取2003年～2016年我国35个大中城市的面板数据,利用System-GMM估计方法与面板门槛模型,实证分析了房价上涨影响城镇居民消费的非线性关系。结果显示,房价上涨显著促进了城镇居民消费,且存在显著门槛效应。当金融发展水平跨越门槛值时,房价上涨对城镇居民消费的促进作用显著增强。因此,要促进金融市场发展,完善房地产财富效应传导机制,提高城镇居民消费水平。

This paper selects the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2003 to 2016 and makes use of System-GMM and panel threshold model to empirically analyze on the nonlinear relationship of the influence of housing price rise on urban household consumption. The results show that the rise of housing prices has significantly promoted urban household consumption and has a obvious threshold effect. When the level of financial development crosses the threshold, the effect of rising house prices on urban household consumption is greatly enhanced. Therefore, we must promote the development of financial markets, advance the transmission mechanism of real estate wealth effects, and improve the consumption level of urban residents.