基于改进稀疏概率分配法的计及参数不确定性的电力系统时域仿真

A New Time-domain Simulation Method of Power Systems Based on Improved Sparse Probabilistic Collocation Method

快速准确的电力系统不确定性时域仿真方法是电力系统不确定性动态及暂态分析的重要工具,其计算精度及速度亟待提升。该文提出了基于改进稀疏概率分配法的电力系统时域不确定性仿真新方法。首先提出了基于Kronrod方法的改进稀疏概率分配法,即利用Kronrod方法对高斯点进行拓展得到嵌套型高斯点,使样本集合满足嵌套特性,大幅度减少了样本数量,并且能适用于不确定参数服从任意分布的情形;进而将该方法应用于计及参数不确定性的电力系统时域仿真,得到了计及参数不确定性的电力系统时域仿真新方法。该文提出的方法可以综合考虑时域仿真中各种不确定参数的影响,快速获得不确定参数的概率密度函数、期望及方差。算例证明了该方法的有效性。

A fast and accurate time-domain simulation method of power system with uncertain parameters is an important tool for power system dynamic and transient analysis,whose accuracy and speed require improving. A new time-domain simulation method based on improved sparse probabilistic collocation method was proposed in this paper.First, an improved sparse probabilistic collocation method based on the Kronrod extension method was proposed, which extends the Gaussian quadrature points to nested ones, greatly reducing the sampling size and can adapt to any distribution of the uncertain parameters. Next, the new time-domain simulation method of power system with uncertain parameters based on the improved method was presented. The method proposed can evaluate the influence of various uncertain parameters on the simulation results and fast obtain the probabilistic density function, expectation and variance of the uncertain parameters. Several cases validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.