摘要
目的:探索我国药物经济学评价贴现率取值。方法:收集各国或地区药物经济学评价指南所公布的贴现率及对应各国或地区相关经济数据,构建成本贴现率影响因素模型。运用Eviews 8进行逐步最小二乘回归以确定模型各指标系数,再根据我国2017年相关数据对成本贴现率进行点估计及区间估计。结果:成本贴现率的点估计值为5.2%,在95%的置信区间为(2.1%,8.3%)。结论:建议遵循大多数国家做法,使健康产出贴现率与成本贴现率相等。因此,建议我国采用5.2%作为药物经济学评价中的贴现率。
Objective: To explore the discount rate in pharmacoeconomic evaluation for China. Methods: It constructed a model of cost discount rates by collecting the published discount rates in the Pharmacoeconomic guidelines and corresponding economic data of various countries. Stepwise least squares regression was conducted by Eviews8 Software to determine the coefficients of the model,and then estimate the cost discount rate for China based on the relevant data of 2017 in China. Results: The point estimate for the cost discount rate was 5.2% with the 95% confidence interval between (2.1%, 8.3%). Conclusion: It was recommended to follow most national practices to make the health output discount rate equal to the cost discount rate. Therefore, it recommend 5.2% as the discount rate in pharmacoeconomic evaluation for China.
作者
谢烛光
李洪超
XIE Zhu-guang;LI Hong-chao(International Medical Business School,China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 211198, China)
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2019年第5期74-77,共4页
Chinese Health Economics
关键词
药物经济学
贴现率
逐步最小二乘回归
pharmacoeconomics
discount rate
stepwise least squares regression