中国海洋经济周期波动分析

Analysis of China′s Marine Economic Cycle Fluctuations

在"一带一路"倡议下,中国海洋经济对外开放程度和对外依赖程度日益增长。同时,由于受不同层面的冲击影响,海洋经济的发展产生了不确定性进而引致了潜在的经济周期性增长风险。因此,对海洋经济运行的周期波动以及发展态势进行监测与预判,有利于海洋经济保持于稳健的增长路径之上。基于增长率指标构建的中国海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数的实证,研究结论表明:①所构造的海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数具有较高的预测预判效果,先行指数、同步指数、滞后指数之间的变动存在合理的时差关系;②中国海洋经济存在显著的短周期性波动。进一步的研究发现,由于宏观政策调控和外部经济环境的显著性影响,海洋经济周期与中国宏观经济周期呈现出协动性特征。

On the Belt and Road initiative, China′s marine economy is increasingly opening to the outside world and externally dependent. At the same time, due to the influence of impacts at different levels, the development of the marine economy has created uncertainty and then led to potential economic cyclical growth risks. Therefore,monitoring and anticipating the stage of the marine economic cycle of the macro level and the future development trend will help the marine economy to maintain a stable growth path. The result of the empirical analysis of China’s marine economic diffusion index and synthetic index constructed based on the growth index of China′s marine economy showed that: i) these indexes constructed have a prediction performance with high accuracy, and there is a reasonable time difference between the leading index, the synchronous index and the lagging index. ii) the Chinese marine economy has significant short-term cyclical fluctuations. Further research finds that due to the macroeconomic policy regulation and the significant impact of the external economic environment, the marine economic cycle and the China′s macroeconomic cycle show synergistic characteristics.