2006-2015年新疆地州城镇化质量时空分异研究

Temporal and Spatial Differentiation about the Quality of Urbanization on Prefecture Scale from 2006 to 2015 in Xinjiang

质量是城镇化进程的关键。在构建城镇化质量评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵值法确定各指标权重,并结合变异系数法,研究新疆地州城镇化质量及其时空分异规律。实证表明:2006-2015年新疆城镇化发展并不稳定、质量较低,14个地州间城镇化质量差距不断加大。其中,乌鲁木齐市和克拉玛依市的城镇化质量一直远高于其它地州;昌吉州、哈密地区、博州和巴州等4地州城镇化质量涨幅明显、势头良好,而其它8个地州城镇化质量偏低、滞后效应明显。分目标方面,各地州均存在明显的短板效应,其中,克拉玛依市的人口发展质量远高于其它地州;乌鲁木齐市的经济发展质量摇摇领先、克拉玛依市经济发展质量起点高,但增速慢、领先的优势渐缓,其它地州则严重滞后;乌鲁木齐市和克拉玛依市的社会发展质量大幅领先于其它地州,而阿克苏地区、克州、喀什地区、和田地区4地州则明显滞后、固化特征明显;协调发展方面,除乌鲁木齐市极不稳定的走势外,其它地州协调发展质量低且变幅小、表现出一定的固化特征。因此,提升新疆城镇化质量必须从完善政策机制、构建绿色产业体系和培育人才支撑方面着手。

The quality is the key to the process of urbanization.By constructing the evaluation index system for the quality of urbanization,to apply entropy value method to determine weights of Indicators,and it utilizes the coefficient of variation,to study the quality of urbanization and the law of temporal and spatial differentiation in prefectures of Xinjiang.The results show that:the urbanization was unstable development and low quality,the urbanization quality gap was increasing between 14 Prefectures in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2015.Among them,the quality of urbanization of Urumqi and Karamay was far higher than other prefectures,The urbanization quality of Changji,Hami,Bozhou,Bazhou gained obvious increasement and good momentum.However,the urbanization quality of other eight prefectures are low and lag effect were obvious.In terms of the sub-targets,there were obvious short-board effects in all prefectures:The quality of population development in Karamay was far better than other prefectures;The quality of economic development in Urumqi was leading,and the quality of economic development in Karamay is high start point,but the growth rate was slow and the leading edge was lower.Other prefectures were seriously lagging behind.the quality of social development for Urumqi and Karamay were ahead of the others,but Aksu,Kezhou Kashi,hotan were obviously lag behind;As coordinated development,except of volatile trend in Urumqi,other prefectures developed low quality and small variation showed certain curing characteristics.So,in order to improve quality of urbanization in Xinjiang,it is necessary to improve policy mechanism,to build green industry system and to cultivate talent support.