银行集中度与经济增长——基于我国1989-2016年数据的实证分析

Bank Concentration Degree and Economic Growth——Empirical Evidence Based on the Time Series Data from 1989 to 2016

银行集中度与经济增长具有密切的关系。基于我国1989-2016年的时间序列数据实证分析了两者之间的关系。研究结果表明,经济增长是银行集中度的原因,经济发展水平越高,银行集中度越低。经济增长的冲击对银行集中度变化的贡献度稳定在20.1%左右。经济增长的冲击对贷款总量变化的贡献度稳定在74.6%左右。另一方面,银行集中度的降低即银行业竞争程度的提高未能促进经济增长,这可能与我国的储蓄投资传导渠道不畅、国有企业比重比较大效率较低以及长期存在利率管制等因素有关。

Bank concentration is closely related to economic growth.Based on the time series data from 1989 to 2016,the paper explores the relationship between bank concentration degree and economic growth.Studies show that economic growth is the reason for bank concentration,and the higher the level of economic development,the lower the bank concentration is.The contribution degree of economic growth shocks to changes of bank concentration keeps at around 20.1% stably.The contribution degree of economic growth shocks to the changes of total loans keeps at around 74.6% stably.On the other hand,bank concentration decreasing,i.e.the competition degree increasing does not push economic growth.This may relate to poor transmission channels of savings and investment,relatively large proportion of state-owned enterprises with low efficiency,as well as long-term interest control in China.