基于风险评估和成本分析的变压器维修策略研究

Research on Transformer Maintenance Strategy Based on Risk Assessment and Cost Analysis

针对电力变压器检修管理中,单一的风险模型和成本模型不能同时考虑到安全性与经济性要求,提出一种基于风险评估和成本分析的维修策略。以风险理论为基础,结合设备故障概率和故障可能导致的资产及系统损失,评估变压器运行风险值;针对风险评估结果,通过引入ALARP准则划分风险可接受等级,判断是否需要检修工作。对于经济性指标,利用全寿命成本理论对变压器寿命周期内各成本要素进行划分、量化计算,再以最小年金成本为判据确定设备现龄是否在其最佳寿命周期内,并在综合考虑电力变压器的运行风险与当前役龄的基础上,制定出兼具安全性与经济性的维修策略。实际案例表明,此维修策略可行。

In the maintenance management of power transformers,considering that a single risk or cost model can’t take into account the safety and economic requirements,this paper proposed a maintenance strategy based on risk assessment and cost analysis.Based on the risk theory,the operational risk value of transformer was evaluated according to the equipment failure probability and the possible loss of assets and system.In allusion to the results of risk assessment,the ALARP criterion was adopted to classify the acceptable level of risk to determine whether the maintenance work was needed.For economic indicators,this paper divided and quantified those cost elements in the life cycle of transformer through life cycle cost theory,and the minimum cost was used as the criterion to judge whether the current service age of transformer was at its best in the life cycle.On the basis of comprehensively considering the operation risk of power transformer and its current service age,this paper worked out the maintenance strategy with both security and economy.The actual case shows the feasible of this maintenance strategy.