江苏省城市土地利用效益时空演变及驱动力研究

Study on Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Urban Land Use Benefits in Jiangsu Province

研究目的:探究江苏省13地市2001—2016年土地利用效益的时空演变规律及空间相关性,并在此基础上分析其效益驱动力,为今后土地的高效利用和优化配置提供借鉴与参考。研究方法:熵权TOPSIS模型,ESDA空间相关性分析,热点分析,Tobit模型。研究结果:(1)2001—2016年江苏省土地利用综合效益由0.299稳步提升到0.669,经历了"平稳—加速—平稳"的过程,实现了"低级—中级—良好"的梯度跨越;(2)各市土地利用效益"高—高""低—低"空间集聚显著,地区间差距大,出现了新一轮苏南城市圈效益热点区并逐步扩大,冷点区域已经消失;(3)经济发展水平、资金投入、城镇化、产业结构、科技创新、环保治理是提升区域土地利用效益的关键因素。研究结论:未来应进一步调整产业结构,加强科技创新,大力倡导发展绿色循环经济,重视生态效益;同时采取苏南、苏北城市定向帮扶措施,缩小地区差距。

The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial and temporal evolution regularity and spatial correlation of land use benefits in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2016,based on which the driving forces of benefits are analyzed,so as to provide reference for the efficient use and optimal allocation of land in the future.The methods employed include the entropy weight TOPSIS model,ESDA spatial correlation analysis,hot-spot analysis and Tobit model.The results show that:1)the comprehensive benefit of land use in Jiangsu Province steadily increased from 0.299 to 0.669 and experienced a“ smooth-acceleration-smooth” process,with a gradient of“ low-medium-good”.2)The phenomenon of“ high-high” and“ low-low” agglomeration of land use benefits in each city is significant,and the regional development gap is large.A new round of hot spots in southern Jiangsu economic circle appeared and gradually expanded,while the cold spots disappeared.3)Economic development level,capital investment,urbanization,industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation and investment in environmental protection management are the key factors to promote the benefits of regional land use.In the future,the industrial structure should be further adjusted,scientific and technological innovation should be strengthened,green recycling economy should be vigorously advocated,and ecological benefit should be emphasized.At the same time,the targeted assistance measures in southern and northern Jiangsu cities should be adopted to narrow the regional gap.