农户对气候变化的适应能力评价及限制因子:基于青藏高原典型农业区调查数据

Assessment of the adaptation capacity of famers to climate change and limiting factor analysis: A survey in a typical agricultural area on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

全球变化背景下,适应气候变化已成为可持续发展的准则。农户是农村社会最重要、最基本的生产单位,通过农户对气候变化适应能力评价及其限制因子的诊断研究,可以提高农户适应行为的有效性,增强适应能力。本研究借鉴可持续生计框架和适应能力评估框架,以青藏高原典型农业区,湟水中下游14个行政村为研究对象,基于入户问卷调查数据,构建该区域的农户对气候变化适应能力评价指标体系,应用适应能力指数模型,进行农户对气候变化适应能力定量评价,并通过障碍度模型,诊断分析主要限制性因子。结果表明:1)湟水中下游地区农户对气候变化感知较为准确;2)农户适应能力的高低用适应能力指数(ACI)表示,研究区农户适应能力处于较高状态,以适应能力0.280≤ACI <0.320的农户为主体。研究区自东向西随着海拔的升高,样本村农户适应能力总体呈现下降趋势;3)维度层表明,自然能力和经济能力对农户适应能力的影响较大。指标层表明,耕地质量、经济收入多元性、获得现金帮助的途径、家庭年收入、劳动力受教育水平和农作物需水量紧缺度为主要限制性因子;4)湟水中下游地区农户适应能力高低的核心因子为农户家庭年收入。

Adapting to climate change has become the norm for sustainable development in the context of global change.Farmers are the main basic unit of production in rural areas.Through diagnostic research on the assessment of farmers’adaptation ability to climate change and its limiting factors,the effectiveness of farmers’adaptation and their adaptation ability can be enhanced.Taking 14 administrative villages in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area of the Tibetan Plateau as a case study,an index system for assessing the adaptation ability of farmers to climate change,based on household survey data,was constructed.The adaptive capacity index model was applied to quantitatively evaluate farmers’adaptability to climate change,with the main restrictive factors of each adaptive capacity area diagnosed and analyzed through the obstacle model.The conclusions showed that 1)farmers in the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area have a more accurate perception of climate change.2)Adaptability is in a high state,with farmers who have the ability of 0.280≤ACI(adaptive capacity index)<0.320 are the main body.In this area,from east to west,there is a downward trend of the sample village farmers’adaptability with altitude.3)The dimension layer shows that natural ability and economic capacity have a major effect on farmers’adaptability.The indicator layer highlights that the quality of cultivated land,diversity of economic income,methods for obtaining financial assistance,annual income of the family,education level of the labor force,and shortage of crop water are the main limiting factors.4)The core factor of the adaptability of farmers in the downstream areas of the Middle-Lower Huangshui Area is the annual income of the farmers.